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Debrief · 2022-07-08

Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply

By 2022-07-08

Value migrated higher yesterday, and into NFP both the higher time frame and the overnight are in balance. The profile review marks my levels above and below, the key structural hold at 3875, and why I expected two-way trade.

NFPHTF balanceON balance2-way

HIGH 3914.25 | LOW 3832.5 | CLOSE 3905 · 24-hour session

The session

No analysis and debrief today. Sorry! The charts tell the story.

Yesterday's PA reviewValue migrating higher.

The profile reviewBreakout of balance: buyside imbalance. The spikes are boxed, and we are back inside the prior balance. The important low is 3866. The key structural HTF hold is 3875.

Into NFPHTF balance, ON balance. The green distribution illustrates the balance area on the HTF: expect chop. We are also in a repair mode from the 28/6 auction.

Yesterday's PA review: value migrating higher.

Levels into the next session

Levels marked on the profile review, above and below. The ones that matter most: the key structural HTF hold at 3875 and the important low at 3866.

Above3909391939323950
Below38823875386638493830381938073796375937443741373537193672

The plan

Profiles into NFP: HTF balance, ON balance.

Balance rulesPlease refer to the balance rules in the trading guidelines.

Opening bell0830CT.

Live journalThe green distribution illustrates the balance area on the HTF, so expect chop: 2-way trade inside the balance. Understanding where you are in the auction really helps to change your expectations, and so means less frustration and FOMO.

Why should we expect 2-way price action? I asked a follower that question during the session, and the answer is on the chart.

Live journal: the green distribution illustrates the balance area on the HTF. Expect chop.

Key lessons

LessonUnderstanding where you are in the auction really helps to change your expectations, and so means less frustration and FOMO. A balance area on the HTF means expect chop.
LessonBalance rules apply. The general rule is to go with the breakout of balance; when it lacks continuation (look above or below and fail), fade it and target the other side of balance.

Quote of the day

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.

Trade well and prosper.

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