The Balanced Tradertradingbalance.co.uk
Reference

The glossary

Every term the journal uses, in plain words. Market profile reads the market as an auction: price moves to find buyers and sellers, and value is where they agree.

Auction and value

Acceptance is time and volume building at a new price, for example holding beyond a level for two or more 30-minute periods; if a move away from balance is genuine, volume and value follow it to the new area. Rejection is a quick move away that leaves a tail or single prints, so after any breakout or spike, monitor for acceptance or the lack of it.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
The market is a continuous two-way auction: price moves higher to find sellers and lower to find buyers, and value is wherever the two agree to do business. When I ask about the health of the auction, I am asking whether it is still finding fresh trade in the direction it is moving.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-24What is a trade journal, and how important is it?2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-18A reminder to myself2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance2022-05-31Trading the holiday effect
A market in which buyers and sellers agree on value, so price rotates inside a range and builds overlapping, bell-shaped value, sometimes for days (a three-day or eight-day balance). In balance I look to fade the extremes, but there is no guarantee it stays in balance, and when it breaks my general rule is to go with the breakout.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-07My lucky toilet break in trading2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
One profile built from several sessions, such as a 10-day, weekly, monthly or three-month composite, showing where longer-term value, HVNs and LVNs sit. Composites give me a lot of clarity: breakouts come from composite balance, and understanding that story simplifies almost everything else, especially timing.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus
A block of the profile where the market accepted price, ideally shaped like a bell curve. I treat each mini distribution, often bounded by singles, as its own area of balance; a profile with two or more of them is a double, bimodal or multimodal distribution.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-04-26Writing a trading plan like a pro2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines
A high-volume node (HVN) is a price area where the most trade has taken place, and a low-volume node (LVN) is where price was rejected and little traded. HVNs act as magnets with choppy trade inside them, while price moves quickly through LVNs, which line up as air pockets between distributions.
2026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines
One side overwhelms the other and price moves directionally away from balance to search for new value. All moves start in balance and end in excess; the imbalance is the move in between.
2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus
A flat edge inside the profile where several TPO periods stopped at the same price, showing a level that buyers or sellers resolutely defended. Think of it as a weak dam: the more TPOs pressing against it, the bigger the move if it breaks, so carry it forward as a reference.
A chart that plots price on the vertical axis against time on the horizontal, building each session into a distribution of how long the market spent at each price, one 30-minute TPO at a time. A volume profile works on the same principles but plots volume at each price instead of time.
A prior session's VPOC that price has not traded back to since. I keep a list of naked VPOCs as targets, because untested value tends to be revisited.
A high or low where more than two TPOs line up, the opposite of excess. It means either continuation interest that pushes through after a retest, or passive absorption that eventually turns the auction; HTF context, order flow and volume tell you which, and in a balanced market they matter less.
2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus
The point of control is the price where the session did the most business: the most time on a market profile (the TPO POC, sometimes written TPOC) or the most volume on a volume profile (the VPOC). It is the fairest price of the session and tends to draw price back to it.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
Prices printed by only one TPO period, left when the auction moved through quickly. They mark imbalance and act as support and resistance; when the market later trades back through and builds value there, it has repaired them.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
My term for single prints inside the profile, separating two distributions, rather than at an extreme. A breach of a singles marker shows the other side is willing to reverse what it did, so I fade into one where an LVN has been left, with the stop just beyond it.
An initiative move away from established balance, driven by price takers using market orders when the other side runs short of liquidity; in profile terms it is usually the breakout in the last period or two of the session. It is emotional trade, and the next open tells you whether it is accepted or rejected.
2026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
The price where a spike began, at the edge of the balance it broke out of. It is the stop for trades with an accepted spike and a key level on any pull-back.
2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines
Two or more single prints at the very high or low of the session. A buying tail at the low shows buyers rejected lower prices; a selling tail at the high shows sellers rejected higher prices.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
The range of prices where about 70% of the session's volume or TPOs traded, built around the POC. The value area high (VAH) and value area low (VAL) are its edges, and in balance I expect responsive trade there.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th
The volume-weighted average price: the average price paid for every contract traded in the session, or across the week or month for the weekly and monthly VWAP. I trade it where it lines up with other references, such as the IB low and the POC, so there is confluence, and rising volume into it is a good sign.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day

The trading day

The range of the first hour of RTH, the A and B periods. Its width, and whether the IB high or IB low is broken and on which side, sets the day type.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
The part of the Globex session outside RTH, from the 18:00 New York reopen through Asia and Europe to the open. I note its high, low, value and inventory before the bell, and after a US holiday the closed day's trade is folded into the next ON session.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
Any trade beyond the initial balance after the first hour. Extension up shows other-timeframe buyers at work and extension down shows sellers, and how much of it there is separates normal, normal variation and trend days.
Regular trading hours (RTH) are the day session, 09:30 to 16:00 New York time (08:30 to 15:00 Chicago) for the stock-index futures; electronic (or extended) trading hours (ETH) are the full Globex session, overnight included. I build separate profiles for each.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th
The official daily price the exchange sets for each contract from trade around the end of the day session, used to mark positions. I carry the prior day's and prior week's settle forward as references, and gaps are measured from it.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-13CPI and PCE: two measures of inflation, and how to trade them2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th
A session that closes on or near its extreme without excess, such as a settle on the day's high after a late stop run. It is unfinished business, and the next session often has to finish that auction first.

Day types and shapes

D-shape
A symmetrical, bell-curve profile with the POC near the middle and activity thinning out at both extremes: a balanced day. These are the profiles where you can scalp and day-trade the edges of the value area under balance rules.
The day starts in balance with a narrow IB, then traders drive the market aggressively one way with little counter-trade until it finds new value. The two distributions are separated by single prints with no overlap, and the close is within 25% of the extreme.
A session whose high and low are both inside the prior session's range, and the same for a week or a month: balance. Watch the extremes; a breakout that holds on a pull-back is the safer entry, and beware of fake-outs.
Despite the name, not all that common: the big players enter early and trade aggressively, setting a wide initial balance, and the market then trades sideways inside it. The IB high and IB low both hold, or are only barely extended.
A profile with a thin lower part (a buying tail or singles) and a fat upper distribution, like the letter P. It typically marks short covering rather than new buying, so the next session shows whether fresh buyers take over.

Opens and gaps

Open location
Where the RTH open sits against the prior day's value and range: inside value, outside value but inside range, or outside range. Opens inside balance tend to be slower (an open auction or a test), while opens outside the range bring a faster response and matter most.
The market opens and tries to continue in one direction, often from above or below the prior value area, but a strong opposing force rejects it and the auction reverses back through the open. It shows less conviction than a drive, and the rejected opening extreme becomes a reference.
An open away from the prior settlement or close but still inside the prior day's range. It fills far more often than a true gap; my early posts called these inside-range (IR) gaps.

Control

Back-and-forth price action with no follow-through as buyers and sellers trade the same area, typical inside an HVN or after a big swing and reversal. It chops until one side gives up, so stay away unless you love to scalp.
2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
The timeframes above and below the one you trade: daily, weekly and monthly structure against intraday. Always be aware of the HTF context, and pre-empt on the lower timeframe only when an HTF set-up supports it.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance2022-05-31Trading the holiday effect
Initiative activity is buying above value or selling below it, moving the market to new prices; responsive activity is buying below value or selling above it, back towards value. In balance expect responsive trade at the value-area edges, while a breakout needs initiative, impulsive price action.
2026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
The net position the overnight session takes into the open: long if most ON business was done above the prior close, short if below (I sometimes give it as a percentage, such as 95% short). When ON inventory is overly long or short, expect an adjustment against it early in RTH.
2024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
A trade beyond a key reference, such as a balance extreme, a prior high or low, or the ON extreme, that finds no acceptance and returns inside. The late breakout traders and their stops become the fuel for the reversal, which often runs to the other side of balance, so fade it.
A break out of balance that is accepted: break to the upside and you want to be a buyer, break to the downside and you want to be a seller. If you miss the initial move, the retest of the break is often the safer entry.
Each bar, whether a 30-minute period, a day, a week or a month, makes a higher low than the last (one-time-framing up, OTFU) or a lower high (one-time-framing down, OTFD), showing the other timeframe is in control. It ends when price trades through the prior bar's low in an OTFU, or its high in an OTFD.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
The longer-term traders, such as funds and institutions, whose business moves price away from value and changes it, as opposed to day-timeframe traders who rotate inside value. On this site I usually call them HTF participants, and OTF is my shorthand for one-time-framing.
Rotation factor
Dalton's running count of control through the day: each 30-minute period scores +1 for a higher high and +1 for a higher low than the period before, and -1 for each lower high or lower low. A positive total says buyers are in control and a negative one says sellers are.
Short covering is buying by shorts closing positions, and long liquidation is selling by longs getting out: old business leaving, not new business arriving. Both can move price fast (the P-shape and b-shape are their typical prints), but once the positions are closed the move can lack follow-through.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-21Debrief · 19 August 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead

Volume and order flow

Passive limit orders soaking up aggressive market orders at a level, so heavy volume trades but price does not move. If the absorbing side holds, the aggressors get frustrated and the auction reverses; if its liquidity runs out the break can be brutal, because stops sit beyond the level.
2024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-08-24What is a trade journal, and how important is it?2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-05TPOs, non-excess extremes and profile ledges2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
Absorption at highs
Passive sellers soaking up buying at the top of a range, so the market prints non-excess highs that look like buying pressure. In a slow-paced, balanced auction that is actually a sign of buying weakness, and a short set-up.
Delta and cumulative delta
Delta is the volume traded at the ask (aggressive buyers) minus the volume traded at the bid (aggressive sellers), in a bar or at a price; cumulative delta is its running total through the session. Watch it against price: delta moving hard one way before a level breaks is a clue.
My marker for a bar where one side hit the market hard: RVOL of at least 200%, a wide range, a body of at least 60% of the bar and a close at an extreme. I ring these on the charts because they show where the aggressive money came in.
A push through a level where stops are likely to sit, such as poor highs or lows or obvious weekly extremes, that triggers them. In thin markets stops can set off a cascade of other automated stops and a sudden crash, so be careful trading near those areas.

Risk and execution

My general rules for trading balance: go with an accepted breakout (look above or below and go), buy or sell the retest if you miss the move, and fade a failed breakout (look above or below and fail) back to the other side. Don't pre-empt the extremes: it is a risky, low-payout trade unless an HTF set-up supports it.
The size of each order or position. Predefine your clip size and risk before high-impact data: the bigger the potential reward the bigger the stake, but risk comes first.
To trade against the current move, for example selling a rally into the VAH or buying into a singles marker. Never fade an open drive, or the initial price discovery out of a true gap.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day2022-06-01Market profile spike and singles guidelines2022-06-01Market profile guidelines and trading balance
One-cancels-other: two linked orders, such as a buy stop above a range and a sell stop below it, where a fill on one cancels the other. Use them around data releases, when it is often too fast to trade by hand.
A move back against a breakout or trend to a prior reference, such as the break level, VWAP or a spike base. A breakout followed by a PB that holds is a safer entry than chasing the break.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262024-08-24Debrief · 23 August 2024 · Jackson Hole: balance holds and buyers trend into a strong close2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-02Trading an inside day, week or month2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-07-24Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Understanding market profile day types
My rules for the session after a spike, judged by the open: an open beyond the spike is acceptance, so trade with it with the stop at the spike base; an open back past the spike base is rejection, which turns the spike into excess, so trade against it with the stop at the spike extreme. In Dalton's version an open inside the spike makes the spike range the new area to balance in.
A record of your trading: day type, news, entries, exits, size, strategy and notes, even your sleep and mindset. What you can't track, you can't improve, so review it and make it an open optimisation loop.

References and events

My label, after Jim Dalton, for the extreme of the afternoon pull-back on a directional day: the PB high on a down day (often short covering before a sell-off into the close) or the PB low on an up day. I carry it into the next session as a reference the trend side wants to hold.
The consumer price index is the best-known US inflation measure, published monthly by the BLS at 08:30 New York time, and core CPI excludes food and energy. PCE, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, is the broader measure behind the Fed's 2% target, and both drive the market's view of the Fed's next move.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-10-02Week review · w/c 3 October 2022 · Post-EOQ: a hot PCE print and a jobs week ahead2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-09-18Debrief · 16 September 2022 · OPEX and quad witching: profile and price-action review2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-13CPI and PCE: two measures of inflation, and how to trade them2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-26Week review · w/c 27 June 2022 · Breakouts from balance into quarter-end2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-06How to trade VWAP2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead
Data extremes
The high and low made around a major release such as CPI or NFP. Mark them as soon as they print: if the data drives a new overnight high or low, that extreme goes to the top of the watch list into the open.
An option's delta is how much its price moves with the underlying, which is what dealers hedge with futures; gamma is how fast delta changes, and it grows as expiry nears. When investors hold the options, dealers hedge by selling into falls and buying into rallies, which adds to the move until expiry removes it.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's rate-setting body, which meets eight times a year. The statement at 14:00 New York time and the chair's press conference after it can turn the day, and the minutes follow three weeks later.
2026-11-08GC Week Ahead WC 9th November 20262026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-30Week review · w/c 30 January 2023 · Still inside monthly balance, into a big central bank week2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-21Week review · w/c 22 August 2022 · Jackson Hole, after the four-week winning streak ends2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance
Around holidays desks close early and big participants step back, so in thin liquidity price can move away from value easily, and a strong move into a holiday tends to carry into it. It reverses just as easily when participation returns, so trade value not price, don't chase, and respect HTF levels.
The short list of levels I am watching into the next session, at the top of each debrief: for example a flat top, a shelf and the CPI extremes. They are where I expect the auction to show its hand, not predictions.
2026-11-10Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 76002023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2023-01-03Debrief · 30 December 2022 · First day of the trading year: stocks and bonds bid2022-10-11Debrief · 10 October 2022 · Open test drive fails and another RTH island forms2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-09-25Week review · w/c 26 September 2022 · Post-FOMC 75bp, the BoE, and gilts spiralling lower2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-17Week review · w/c 18 July 2022 · A failed breakout, a short squeeze into OPEX and a 'P' week2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-07-01Debrief · 30 June 2022 · Month end: a true gap, a choppy neutral day and a buying tail2022-06-30Debrief · 29 June 2022 · A normal distribution, then an ON trend into month end2022-06-29Debrief · 28 June 2022 · Open drive trapped at the ON high, then liquidation2022-06-28Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation2022-06-27Debrief · 24 June 2022 · Breakout from three-day balance, settling on the high2022-06-24Debrief · 23 June 2022 · Buyers defend the singles twice, then a gap and go2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Week review · w/c 20 June 2022 · Short bias: sell the rallies, cover the breaks2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-15Debrief · 15 June 2022 · Into the FOMC: all bets are off2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-11Debrief · 10 June 2022 · No buyers after CPI: a b-profile liquidation into the lows2022-06-11Week review · w/c 13 June 2022 · The floodgates open after eight days of balance2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance
The US monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, usually on the first Friday of the month at 08:30 New York time: the change in payrolls outside farming, with unemployment, average hourly earnings and participation. It can reprice rate expectations in seconds, and liquidity tends to settle down after the first 5 minutes.
2023-02-06Debrief · 3 February 2023 · NFP Friday, in charts2023-02-05Week review · w/c 6 February 2023 · Out of the multi-month balance and into the September high2023-01-22Week review · w/c 23 January 2023 · ES pinned between the 200 and 100DMA2023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-06Debrief · 5 January 2023 · NFP day: no plan, just the island extremes2023-01-01Week review · w/c 3 January 2023 · The year ends in balance2022-10-16Week review · w/c 17 October 2022 · The post-CPI collapse2022-10-10Debrief · 7 October 2022 · NFP liquidation back inside the 7-day balance2022-10-09Week review · w/c 10 October 2022 · The post-NFP collapse2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-11Debrief · 8 July 2022 · NFP: sellers fail twice and value stays put2022-07-10Week review · w/c 11 July 2022 · An inside NFP week into CPI and bank earnings2022-07-08Debrief · 7 July 2022 · Into NFP: balance rules apply2022-07-02Week review · w/c 4 July 2022 · The worst first half since 1970, into the holiday and payrolls2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-05Week review · w/c 6 June 2022 · A very balanced week, with the ECB and US CPI ahead2022-06-03Trading non-farm payrolls2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus
The previous session's close (pClose or PCLS), high (yHI), low, VPOC (yVPOC), value area and VWAP, carried into the next day. The prior close is often the first test on the open.
2026-11-08ES Week Ahead WC 9th of November 262026-11-08ES Weekly Ahead WC 9th November 20262023-01-08Week review · w/c 9 January 2023 · A breakout in equities? Give me a break2023-01-04Debrief · 3 January 2023 · FOMC minutes day: yields fall into the main event2022-11-14Week review · w/c 14 November 2022 · Post-CPI: correlations reverse2022-09-26Debrief · 23 September 2022 · Rate-hike bets build on the ECB and BoE2022-08-29Debrief · 29 August 2022 · Post-Powell Jackson Hole: the gap fills, then buyers fail2022-08-07Week review · w/c 8 August 2022 · A balanced week, one time frame up, into CPI2022-07-24Week review · w/c 25 July 2022 · A 'P' week, rejected at the 4016 gap level, into FOMC and big tech2022-07-21Debrief · 20 July 2022 · Sellers can't take out the ON low, and the auction stays OTFU into the ECB2022-07-19Debrief · 18 July 2022 · Trapped buyers under the monthly high, then a long liquidation2022-07-18Debrief · 15 July 2022 · OPEX Friday: profile and price-action review2022-07-15Debrief · 13 July 2022 · US CPI day: review only, watching 3850 for buying weakness2022-07-12Debrief · 11 July 2022 · Summer markets: a sluggish normal day2022-07-06Debrief · 5 July 2022 · Charts only, as recession fears hit oil2022-07-05Debrief · 4 July 2022 · Opening inside range, no conviction trades2022-06-23Debrief · 22 June 2022 · Another responsive open, an outside day, still in balance2022-06-21Debrief · 20 June 2022 · Juneteenth: pick the obvious spot, then a gap and go2022-06-19Gaps and how to trade them2022-06-17Debrief · 16 June 2022 · A weak response at the year lows, then OPEX chop2022-06-14Debrief · 13 June 2022 · A WSJ story triggers another liquidation through the lows2022-06-09Debrief · 9 June 2022 · The ECB breaks the 8-day balance, then CPI blows out2022-06-08Debrief · 8 June 2022 · Sellers soak up buyers, then the eight-day balance breaks2022-06-07Debrief · 7 June 2022 · Fading the extremes of a 7-day balance2022-06-07Debrief · 6 June 2022 · The out-of-range open fails back into the six-day balance2022-06-05Market profile opening types2022-06-05Debrief · 3 June 2022 · NFP barely an event as longs liquidate into the data2022-06-03Debrief · 2 June 2022 · Passive buyers absorb at the gap, then a squeeze to the highs2022-06-02Week review · w/c 31 May 2022 · Memorial Day week, with the jobs data in focus2022-06-02Debrief · 1 June 2022 · A double distribution down to the gap from the 27th2022-06-01Debrief · 31 May 2022 · The holiday drift reverses at 4202, then a choppy balance day
A grid drawn up before a release such as NFP that maps each combination of outcomes (jobs against earnings, say) to the expected market reaction. Highlight the extremes and trade only those, where the surprise has to be repriced.
The tendency for US equities to rally into the year end. My back-test bought the S&P 500 on the first day after 20 December and sold on the first trading day of the new year: a 67% win ratio with an average gain of 1%.
The price where a data or news move started. If you miss the first move, a pull-back to the SOC can offer the best risk-reward, and a reversal back through it shows the initial move is being rejected.
Triple witching (often still called quad witching) is the quarterly OPEX on the third Friday of March, June, September and December, when stock-index futures, index options and stock options expire together. Volume rises as dealers roll positions, but there is nothing spooky about it: it is just the expiry of existing contracts.