Debrief · 27 June 2022 · Sellers hold the opening price, a bottom-heavy consolidation
Buyers pushed into the 10th June spike overnight but were less aggressive into the RTH handover, and noticing that nuance made all the difference. Sellers defended the opening price twice, and the day balanced into a bottom-heavy B profile with the IB low broken by a single point.
H 3931.75 | L 3892/90 | VPOC 3905 | VWAP 3909 | MID 3912 | SETTLE 3905
The session
OvernightThe Sunday/Monday ON began with a strong initial impulse on the open to test Friday's high of 3919.75, followed by a push back down and an attempt to break below 3895. Much like Friday's ON action, sellers lacked the ammunition, and buyers pushed the auction higher to encroach on the spike highs left from the 10th June auction. This is an important reference area: we are observing the spike base and high at 3943 and 3960. The ON high was 3948 and the low 3895, just above Friday's VPOC at 3890.
On the chart: the ON pull-backs were deeper, the ON ledge formed at 3895 was demand, and the ON was flagging downwards, not up or horizontal.
During the RTH handover there were signals that buyers were not quite as aggressive as on Friday: notably, the pull-backs from the highs were deeper. I tweeted this along with yesterday's plan. Noticing this nuance makes all the difference. The open at the RTH handover was 3928.
The openMonday's open dropped quite forcefully, briefly testing the pre-open zipper at 3931.75 before dropping to 3893.25, bang in the middle of the ON low and Friday's. Buyers found their appetite and the auction chopped all the way back up to within 3 ticks of the day's high at 3929. Sellers were defending the opening price, and they succeeded not once but twice before the auction reversed to test the other side of the day's balance.
IB and mid-sessionChop chop: large counter-rotations early. The opening lows were broken and the IB stat was confirmed (97% of IBs are broken), but only by a single point, at 3892.5. Delta was declining for most of the session.
Day typeA very bottom-heavy normal distribution, consolidation day, daily and weekly OTFU. B profile: watch the bottom.
Levels into the next session
- 3892 (yesterday's low)
- 3905 (VPOC)
- 3931.75 (yesterday's high)
- 3943 and 3960 (10th June spike)
- 4016 (gap)
The rest are marked on the profile review, above and below.
Data and news
FinancialJuice reported:
- ECB's Kazaks: worth looking at a 50 bps hike in July.
- G7 leaders agree to study potential price caps on Russian oil and gas (G7 officials).
- China is optimistic about reducing consumer inflation (NDRC).
Month endFrom Twitter: in the last 25 years we have had 6 years deemed bear markets, with sharp declines into the last week of the second quarter. For the last week of the second quarter, 3/6 years had a positive gain, averaging 1.64%, and 3/6 had a loss, averaging -0.27%.
The plan
What information can we take from Monday's consolidation/balancing day?
- Sellers (supply) are found at the opening price, 3929. Observe for change.
- Buyers (demand) are found above Friday's VPOC and the ON lows, 3892. Observe for change.
- B-profile day: the majority of the volume was done in the lower range of the day. Watch that bottom!
- Don't trade VWAP on days like today.
Remember, it's month end this week!
Key tweets
Month END: In the last 25years, we have had 6years deemed as bear markets with sharp declines into the last week of the second quarter. For the last week of the second quarter, 3/6 years had a positive gain the average was 1.64% and 3/6 had a loss The average loss was -0.27%.
View on X →Key lessons
Quote of the day
You do not rise to the level of your goals. You fall to the level of your systems.
Trade well and prosper.
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