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Debrief · 2022-07-24

Debrief · 22 July 2022 · Friday's profile and price-action review

By 2022-07-24

Friday opened at the prior settle and buyers tried to extend the week's trend, but sellers were waiting at the 9th June gap at 4016. Frustrated longs liquidated to 3941 before a bounce to close at 3965: a double distribution day, pivot 3980, with the weekly auction still constructive.

Double distributionFailed auctionOTFUWeekly P-profile

HIGH 4016.25 | LOW 3941.5 | CLOSE 3965 · 24-hour session

The session

The openFriday's RTH open was at the prior settle, 4003, having seen price and value shift higher all week. This was enough of an invitation for buyers to attempt to continue the trend higher, but the idea was put to bed at the singles marker and gap low from 9th June, 4016. This was a big HTF reference, and participants were ready to sell at these higher prices. The auction found sellers at the 6/10 gap.

IB and mid-sessionThe failed auction to the upside was initially contained inside the tight daily IB area, with the IB low at 3986. As longs became increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress to the upside, they began to liquidate, driving the price back through Thursday's gains and finding support just above Wednesday's Jim Dalton afternoon pullback low, at a daily low of 3941.

The closeThe auction would bounce to close at 3965 for the day. Down on the day, but daily and weekly auctions maintain a positive tone, and the auction remains constructive.

Day typeDouble distribution day, with the pivot at 3980, where the auction had attempted and failed to regain ground. H 39160, L 3941.5, VPOC 3997, mid 3978, settle 3965.

The weekValue has been steadily shifting higher for the week: higher lows and highs into the weekend. Weekly vPOC at 3935. Trapped shorts below 3922. A weekly P-profile, with price action maintained outside of the prior five-week balance area, 3639-3950. Crucial for longs that the singles at 3920-3924 are maintained. Daily and weekly auction OTFU; inside month, OTFD.

Friday's profile review: value steadily shifting higher for the week, and the auction found sellers at the 6/10 gap at 4016.

Levels into the next session

Levels marked on the profile review, above and below; 3965 is Friday's settle. 3920-3930 supports the majority of the prior week's PA: look for buyers above and stops below. The prior gap, marked 3820 to 3800, remains unfilled.

Above3980400240164037407240804091
Below3941393539303920389638843868385638433820380037933774

The plan

Buyers will want to regain a footing above the daily pivot of 3980, and sellers will want to end the OTFU at 3941.5.

Key lessons

LessonRespect the big HTF references. The singles marker and gap low from 9th June at 4016 was a big HTF reference, and participants were ready to sell at those higher prices. That is where the idea of trend continuation was put to bed.
LessonA failed auction to the upside inside a tight IB breeds frustration. As longs became increasingly frustrated at the lack of progress, they began to liquidate, and that drove price back through Thursday's gains.
LessonDown on the day is not the whole story. Daily and weekly auctions maintained a positive tone and the auction remained constructive; for longs, the crucial thing is that the singles at 3920-3924 hold.

Quote of the day

I learned that if you work hard and creatively, you can have just about anything you want, but not everything you want. Maturity is the ability to reject good alternatives in order to pursue even better ones.
It is far more common for people to allow ego to stand in the way of learning.

Trade well and prosper.

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